首页 > 随感 > 由《商海通牒(Margin Call)》所想到的

由《商海通牒(Margin Call)》所想到的

2012年2月17日 发表评论 阅读评论

上周末,看了关于华尔街,关于金融的电影《Margin Call》,中译《商海通牒》,又译《孖展风云(港)》 /《 黑心交易员的告白(台)》 / 《利益召唤》。这部电影个人感觉还不错,大致讲了在08年金融危机来临之前的华尔街,一个金融巨鳄是如何陷入危机,并转嫁危机的,从而对整个金融业造成更大动荡,看完以后对金融游戏有些了解(其实我虽然我从没想过涉足金融领域,但对金融还是有兴趣的,毕竟其已经深刻的影响我们的生活)。在这里,我不想介绍其具体介绍或剧情,有需要的可以看豆瓣电影的相关词条。其实这部电影对我印象最深的是一段对白,在这里分享下:

你知道吗,我以前造过座桥,我以前是个工程师。
这桥连接俄亥俄的多士巴和西维吉尼亚的玛瑟夫,在俄亥俄州河面上横跨912英尺[约277米]。
每天有一万两千一百人通过这桥,把从惠灵到新马顿赛的单程距离缩短了三十五英里;
一天总共是八十四万七千英里;
一个月两千五百四十一万英里;
一年 三亿四百九十二万英里就这么节省下来了。
那桥是我在1986年完成的,
就是二十二年前从桥建成以后算起,总共节省了六十七亿八百二十四万英里的车程。
时速呢,就算五十英里每小时吧,那就是一亿三千四百十六万四千八百小时,
也就是五十五万九千零二十天。
这么一座小桥,让这两个社区的居民总共节省了一千五百三十一年,不用浪费在车厢里。
一千五百三十一年啊!老天啊!

就修一座桥,对于工程师,也许花费的时间不到一个月,但实实在在的数字表明,其作用却可以让人节省一千五百三十一年以上,这个结果真令人震惊。这也使我思考,我以后应该做什么样的工作,那就是具有可放大性的工作,就是价值可放大的工作。其实这词来自《黑客与画家》,上学期有段时间,我中午一般在三叶休息,房间里有本《黑客与画家》,顺手看完了,这本书很不错,推荐给我的程序员朋友们,乃至所有的朋友们。

所谓可放大性的工作,最基本的要求就是你做的工作能够影响到很多人乃至让很多人受益,这可以实现高的社会价值;实现了高的社会价值,一般来说,上帝是公平的,必然能带来高的自我价值,说得俗一点,就是能赚比较多的钱,能让身边的人和自己活得轻松自在舒适一点。具体来说,可放大性可以有两种体现方式,现在和未来(没有过去):

所谓现在,是指在当代就能使用的,当代就能影响到很多人,由于社会价值能够体现比较及时,其个人价值也比较容易实现,但是,其价值起作用的时间可能比较短,尤其是技术革新这么快的时代;这类主要体现在一些顶级工程师,比如设计搜索引擎的工程师,一个好的搜索引擎能够让几十亿人找信息的速度提高不知道多少倍,为人们省下了不知道多少时间;larry page,李彦宏这些人的代表。

所谓未来,主要是能够影响很长远的,这些主要是一些基础研究,原创发明,又曰学术研究。这些东西,刚出来的时候很难看到其价值,实现的社会价值往往在未来,因此其个人价值可能比较难实现,有可能得不到对等的个人价值。不过,这类人(学术研究人员)的个人价值平均来说也不低,即使你没有做出对等的社会价值,也能生活的还行,因为做得很多事的价值是很难在现在评判的。

前面有一句话“一般来说,上帝是公平的”,也就是说,有时不会那么公平。这就要求我们的工作,具有可测量性,这样的话,就比较容易实现和社会对等的个人价值。这一般要求,我们的工作要么是独一无二的(这个貌似很难实现),要么是在小团队里,大家都能看得明明白白;因为在一个大的团队里,每个人的贡献虽然不一样,但最终的收益一般还是比较接近的;但是,小团队风险大,所以这是一个矛盾。

那么,到底怎么样的工作才是我所需要的呢。假如没有选择,很好,唯一地就是最好的,可是,一般不会出现这种情况,因为只要你想改变,总是能够改变,能够有新的选择;当还有选择的时候,其实是一种博弈,这博弈中间的变量(对人来说,主要有个人兴趣,个人能力,以及社会背景)还会随时间变化,因此,你很可能一开始想要选择的,并不一定是你最终选择。写到这,又想到之前看过的另一个和金融相关的半商战片《亲密敌人》,博弈的结果往往是意想不到的:原来黄立行和徐静蕾,是竞争对手,是敌人,可是由于外部因素和内部因素,博弈到最后,两人成了合作者,情人。因此,我现在也不知道,最终我会选择什么样的工作,唯一可确定的是,我会尽量选一个社会价值可放大的工作,而现在我需要做的,就是尽量让自己的能力能够满足这些工作的要求,尤其是这两类可放大性工作的共同要求。赢在执行而不是计划!



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